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There’s no indication that Wilkie will be retiring, but this will be an interesting contest when he does. It will probably be a very dirty Labor vs Green contest where both fight hammer and tongs to win.
The 2022 senate results paint the kind of starting point – Labor 30.1%, Greens 26.4%, Liberal 23.4%. Labor made a good recovery in the recent state election results in Clarke polling 30%, but running a campaign in a federal single-member seat is very different to a Hare-Clarke system, and I think Labor will need a higher primary vote like 35%+ to feel comfortable about seeing off the Green threat here.
This poses difficulties for Labor, because running a strong federal campaign in Clarke where they have to battle the Greens makes it harder for Labor to campaign in Lyons/Bass/Braddon where being seen as sympathetic to the Greens policies may be toxic. It’s all theoretical at this point, but something to consider for future.
Labor are probably just biding their time waiting for Wilkie to retire. Over many elections – state, federal and senate – the Greens are stuck at 26 or 27% maximum vote. There is also a Liberal voting floor of about 25%. This leaves Labor with about 40% – a good base for a comfortable win.
I imagine we will see greens do well here. Most inner central city seats are trending that way. They already have melbourne and griffith(brisbane) they will get Sydney when plibersek retires and Perth and Adelaide over time I imagine too. Unlike the Teals who have no legacy party to take over the greens are a permanent threat to Labor. All it will take to unseat the Teals will be them supporting a ,anor minority govt or for them to retire so the liberals only have to wait to reclaim them. The exception is Wentworth which will be marginal and probably flip Labor when spender retires so that’s a good thing for the libs for her to there now.
I don’t think the Greens have hit their ceiling. They have gotten much better at pulling in working class votes in traditional ALP areas (that aren’t inner city hipsters). The main problem is that Greens need to not just beat Labor on primaries but have enough of a lead to survive Lib to ALP preferences.
Until Wilkie retires, seems like Franklin has more potential and running against the housing Minister would be the kind of campaign Greens would want to run
@john Clark is currently 8% under quota and franklin about that over so Clark will absorb parts of franklin